A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
