Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
